Nov 09, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Detailed Findings
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers from late October to early November. Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.7 marks, with 32% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 42 percentage points. Both have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 36.5 marks. His net popularity is negative 6 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 44.2 marks, registering a record high since February 2018. His net popularity is positive 2 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 28.8 marks, registering another record high since early June 2019. Her net popularity is negative 39 percentage points. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “prosperity”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.42, 5.35, 5.18, 4.87 and 4.16 respectively. All indicators have not registered any significant change compared with a month ago. The effective response rate of the survey is 50.1%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-3.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 29/10-3/11/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,004 (including 503 landline and 501 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 50.1% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.1 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and Secretaries of Departments
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 20-26/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 16-23/9/21 | 4-7/10/21[3] | 18-22/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,003 | 1,000 | 1,036 | 1,010 | 1,000 | 1,004 | — |
| Response rate | 52.9% | 44.2% | 44.1% | 62.9% | 52.2% | 50.1% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 33.8 | 35.6 | 33.9 | 38.3[4] | 37.0 | 35.7+/-2.1 | -1.3 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
20% | 24%[4] | 20%[4] | 24%[4] | 22% | 23+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
68% | 65% | 66% | 59%[4] | 64%[4] | 66+/-3% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -48% | -41% | -46% | -35%[4] | -42% | -42+/-5% | — |
[3] POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 6/10/2021 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 5 marks, net approval rate at negative 48 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 16-23/9/2021.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 3-7/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 636-700 | 570-692 | 590-647 | 574-600 | 589-668 | 529-589 | — |
| Response rate | 55.5% | 55.1% | 46.4% | 49.4% | 44.2% | 50.1% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CS John Lee | — | — | 38.0 | 35.3 | 37.5 | 36.5+/-3.1 | -0.9 |
| Vote of confidence in CS John Lee | — | — | 32% | 29% | 28% | 29+/-4% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS John Lee | — | — | 37% | 40% | 38% | 35+/-4% | -3% |
| Net approval rate | — | — | -5% | -11% | -11% | -6+/-7% | +4% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 35.1 | 35.4 | 43.5[5] | 41.3 | 41.9 | 44.2+/-2.5 | +2.3 |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 24% | 25% | 32%[5] | 33% | 31% | 31+/-4% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 42% | 43% | 32%[5] | 29% | 35%[5] | 29+/-4% | -6%[5] |
| Net approval rate | -18% | -18% | 1%[5] | 4% | -5% | 2+/-7% | +7% |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 25.0 | 24.2 | 28.1[5] | 27.7 | 28.3 | 28.8+/-2.5 | +0.5 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 14% | 14% | 16% | 14% | 15% | 14+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 57% | 61% | 53%[5] | 53% | 50% | 53+/-4% | +2% |
| Net approval rate | -44% | -47% | -37%[5] | -39% | -35% | -39+/-6% | -4% |
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.7 marks, with 32% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 23%, disapproval rate 66%, giving a net popularity of negative 42 percentage points. The rating and net popularity have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 36.5 marks. His approval rate is 29%, disapproval rate 35%, giving a net popularity of negative 6 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 44.2 marks, registering a record high since February 2018. His approval rate stands at 31%, disapproval rate 29%, thus a net popularity of positive 2 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 28.8 marks, registering another record high since early June 2019. Her approval rate stands at 14%, disapproval rate 53%, giving a net popularity of negative 39 percentage points. No significant changes have been registered for all the above ratings and net approval rates compared to two months ago.
Core Social Indicators
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 30/6-8/7/21 | 9-12/8/21 | 6-10/9/21 | 4-7/10/21 | 29/10-3/11/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 595-606 | 635-666 | 593-605 | 602-611 | 599-610 | — |
| Response rate | 46.4% | 49.4% | 44.2% | 62.9% | 50.1% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Degree of stability | 4.76 | 4.99 | 5.07 | 5.48[6] | 5.42+/-0.24 | -0.06 |
| Degree of prosperity | 4.94 | 5.52[6] | 5.02[6] | 5.26 | 5.35+/-0.20 | +0.09 |
| Degree of freedom | 4.56 | 5.11[6] | 4.95 | 5.12 | 5.18+/-0.25 | +0.06 |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 4.48 | 5.06[6] | 4.64[6] | 4.86 | 4.87+/-0.26 | +0.01 |
| Degree of democracy | 4.04 | 4.02 | 4.28 | 4.28 | 4.16+/-0.27 | -0.11 |
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “prosperity”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.42, 5.35, 5.18, 4.87 and 4.16 respectively. All indicators have not registered any significant change compared with a month ago.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 6 to 10 September, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 29 October to 3 November, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 3/11/21 | The government announces the arrangements for the third dose of COVID-19 vaccination. |
| 1/11/21 | Five people are arrested for using fake “LeaveHomeSafe” apps. |
| 31/10/21 | Starting from tomorrow, it is mandatory to use the “LeaveHomeSafe” app when entering government premises. |
| 29/10/21 | The nomination period of Legislative Council election will start soon. |
| 26/10/21 | The government will axe most quarantine exemptions to facilitate border reopening with mainland China. |
| 9/10/21 | The Observatory revises its forecast of tropical cyclone warning signals repeatedly. |
| 8/10/21 | The government publishes the “Hong Kong 2030+” strategic planning final report. |
| 8/10/21 | The Observatory issues the Black Rainstorm Warning Signal as tropical storm Lionrock approaches. |
| 7/10/21 | The Policy Address proposes developing the “Northern Metropolis”. |
| 6/10/21 | Carrie Lam delivers the last Policy Address during her term of office. |
| 1/10/21 | The government holds a flag-raising ceremony and a reception in celebration of the National Day. |
| 27/9/21 | The government releases the Report on Hong Kong’s Business Environment. |
| 27/9/21 | Senior police inspector Kary Lam falls into the sea and dies while pursuing smuggling speedboats. |
| 20/9/21 | 364 members of the Election Committee are elected. |
| 20/9/21 | Various property stocks plummet while rumour has it that the Central Government is putting pressure on Hong Kong property developers. |
| 7/9/21 | The government resumes the Return2hk Scheme and will launch the Come2hk Scheme. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 35.7 marks, with 32% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 42 percentage points. Both have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS John Lee is 36.5 marks. His net popularity is negative 6 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 44.2 marks, registering a record high since February 2018. His net popularity is positive 2 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 28.8 marks, registering another record high since early June 2019. Her net popularity is negative 39 percentage points.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “stability”, “prosperity”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 5.42, 5.35, 5.18, 4.87 and 4.16 respectively. All indicators have not registered any significant change compared with a month ago.