Jan 31, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Detailed Findings
[report]
Press Release on January 31, 2020
POP releases popularity of CE and SAR Government
and Public Sentiment Index
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-January. Our survey shows that before the first Wuhan Coronavirus case was confirmed in HK, the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam stands at 20.8 marks. Her net popularity is negative 66 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from early January. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 60 percentage points while the net trust value is negative 50 percentage points. The latter is at its worst since the survey series began in 1992. People’s net satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions are negative 47, negative 52 and negative 79 percentage points respectively. People’s satisfaction with the current economic condition has registered a new record low since 2003. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 52.2, down by 2.8 points from early January. The effective response rate of the survey is 69.7%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-1.9 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 16-21/1/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,004 (including 501 landline and 503 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 69.7% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-6% and that of ratings not more than +/-1.9 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and SAR Government
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 1-8/11/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 28/11-3/12/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 3-8/1/20 | 16-21/1/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,016 | 1,008 | 1,014 | 1,046 | 1,011 | 1,004 | — |
| Response rate | 69.4% | 74.1% | 63.2% | 61.6% | 72.0% | 69.7% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 19.5 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.6 | 21.5 | 20.8+/-1.9 | -0.7 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 11% | 11% | 10% | 12% | 14% | 14+/-2% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 82% | 82% | 82% | 81% | 80% | 80+/-3% | — |
| Net approval rate | -71% | -72% | -72% | -68% | -66% | -66+/-4% | -1% |
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 15-20/8/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 16-21/1/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 635 | 688 | 668 | 591 | 646 | 597 | — |
| Response rate | 68.5% | 69.5% | 63.2% | 74.1% | 61.6% | 69.7% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] | 14% | 12% | 10% | 11% | 14% | 15+/-3% | +1% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[5] | 77%[6] | 76% | 79% | 77% | 76% | 75+/-4% | -1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -63%[6] | -63% | -69% | -66% | -62% | -60+/-6% | +2% |
| Mean value[5] | 1.8[6] | 1.8 | 1.7[6] | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.8+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[5] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent figures regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 17-19/7/19 | 15-20/8/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 16-21/1/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 555 | 632 | 623 | 607 | 618 | 641 | — |
| Response rate | 59.8% | 68.5% | 63.2% | 74.1% | 61.6% | 69.7% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[7] | 29% | 27% | 23% | 23% | 25% | 19+/-3% | -5%[8] |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[7] | 60% | 64% | 68% | 64% | 63% | 69+/-4% | +6%[8] |
| Net trust | -31% | -37% | -44% | -41% | -39% | -50+/-6% | -12%[8] |
| Mean value[7] | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.0+/-0.1 | -0.2[8] |
[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[8] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 15-20/8/19 | 16-19/9/19 | 17-23/10/19 | 15-21/11/19 | 13-18/12/19 | 16-21/1/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,023 | 1,061 | 1,038 | 1,008 | 1,046 | 866 | — |
| Response rate | 68.5% | 69.5% | 63.2% | 74.1% | 61.6% | 69.7% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[9] |
25% | 19%[10] | 19% | 20% | 17% | 16+/-2% | -1% |
| Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[9] |
53%[10] | 55% | 61%[10] | 57%[10] | 57% | 63+/-3% | +6%[10] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -29%[10] | -35% | -42%[10] | -37% | -40% | -47+/-5% | -7%[10] |
| Mean value[9] | 2.5[10] | 2.4[10] | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.2+/-0.1 | -0.1[10] |
| Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[9] |
16%[10] | 13% | 14% | 17% | 14% | 17+/-3% | +2% |
| Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[9] |
69%[10] | 70% | 71% | 69% | 68% | 68+/-3% | — |
| Net satisfaction rate | -54%[10] | -57% | -57% | -52% | -53% | -52+/-5% | +2% |
| Mean value[9] | 2.1[10] | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.1[10] | 2.1 | 2.1+/-0.1 | — |
| Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[9] |
5% | 3%[10] | 3% | 4% | 3% | 6+/-2% | +2%[10] |
| Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[9] |
88% | 85% | 88% | 83%[10] | 88%[10] | 85+/-2% | -3% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -83% | -82% | -85% | -79%[10] | -84%[10] | -79+/-4% | +5%[10] |
| Mean value[9] | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.5[10] | 1.4 | 1.5+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 20.8 marks. Her approval rate is 14%, disapproval rate 80%, giving a net popularity of negative 66 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from two weeks ago.
Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 15%, whereas 75% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 60 percentage points. The mean score is 1.8, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 19% of the respondents expressed trust, 69% expressed distrust. The net trust value is negative 50 percentage points. The mean score is 2.0, meaning close to “quite distrust” in general. All of these figures regarding the level of trust are at their worst since the survey series began in 1992.
As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 16%, 17% and 6% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 47, negative 52 and negative 79 percentage points respectively. The mean scores of economic condition and livelihood condition are 2.2 and 2.1 respectively, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general; that of political condition is 1.5, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general. People’s satisfaction with the current economic condition has registered a new record low since 2003.
Public Sentiment Index
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.
The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
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| Latest figure | Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 52.2 (-2.8) |
Government Appraisal (GA): 51.0 (-2.5) |
Society Appraisal (SA): 56.1 (-2.5) |
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
| Cut-off date | 8/11/19 | 21/11/19 | 3/12/19 | 18/12/19 | 8/1/20 | 21/1/20 | Latest change |
| Public Sentiment Index (PSI) | 50.2 | 54.2 | 54.2 | 54.3 | 55.0 | 52.2 | -2.8 |
| Government Appraisal (GA) | 49.4 | 51.1 | 51.0 | 52.3 | 53.5 | 51.0 | -2.5 |
| Rating of CE | 19.5 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.6 | 21.5 | 20.8 | -0.7 |
| Net approval rate of CE | -71% | -72% | -72% | -68% | -66% | -66% | -1% |
| Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG | 1.7[11] | 1.7 | 1.7[11] | 1.8 | 1.8[11] | 1.8 | +0.1 |
| Mean value of people’s trust in SARG | 2.1[11] | 2.2 | 2.2[11] | 2.2 | 2.2[11] | 2.0 | -0.2 |
| Society Appraisal (SA) | 54.2[11] | 59.7 | 59.7[11] | 58.6 | 58.6[11] | 56.1 | -2.5 |
| People’s satisfaction with political condition | 1.4[11] | 1.5 | 1.5[11] | 1.4 | 1.4[11] | 1.5 | +0.1 |
| Weighting index of political condition | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | 0.34 | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | — |
| People’s satisfaction with economic condition | 2.3[11] | 2.3 | 2.3[11] | 2.4 | 2.4[11] | 2.2 | -0.1 |
| Weighting index of economic condition | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | 0.32 | 0.32[11] | 0.32[11] | — |
| People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition | 2.0[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | 2.1[11] | 2.1 | — |
| Weighting index of livelihood condition | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.35[11] | 0.34 | 0.34[11] | 0.34[11] | — |
[11] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
| Score value | Percentile | Score value | Percentile |
| 140-200 | Highest 1% | 0-60 | Lowest 1% |
| 125 | Highest 5% | 75 | Lowest 5% |
| 120 | Highest 10% | 80 | Lowest 10% |
| 110 | Highest 25% | 90 | Lowest 25% |
| 100 being normal level, meaning half above half below | |||
The latest PSI stands at 52.2, down by 2.8 points from early January. It can be considered as among the worst 1% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance decreases by 2.5 points to 51.0, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment also decreases by 2.5 points to 56.1. They can both be considered as among the worst 1%.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 13 to 18 December, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 16 to 21 January, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 21/1/20 | Wuhan pneumonia continues to spread rapidly and into Taiwan. |
| 20/1/20 | Wuhan pneumonia spreads rapidly in China. |
| 19/1/20 | Rally at Central turns into a conflict between protestors and the police. |
| 14/1/20 | The government announces ten initiatives to benefit livelihoods of the people. |
| 13/1/20 | The government plans to provide over $10 billion to Ocean Park as a subsidy. |
| 11/1/20 | Tsai Ing-wen wins Taiwan’s presidential election. |
| 9/1/20 | Experts say Wuhan pneumonia is caused by a new coronavirus. |
| 7/1/20 | The government adds Wuhan pneumonia to the list of notifiable diseases. |
| 4/1/20 | Luo Huining is appointed the Director of the Liaison Office. |
| 3/1/20 | Wuhan authorities announce an increase of pneumonia cases to 44. |
| 2/1/20 | A woman back from Wuhan has symptoms of pneumonia. |
| 1/1/20 | The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally. |
| 31/12/19 | Protesting activities occur in multiple districts on New Year’s Eve. |
| 28/12/19 | Number of tours for tourists from mainland China has plunged. |
| 25/12/19 | Protesting activities occur in multiple districts during Christmas. |
| 16/12/19 | Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that before the first Wuhan Coronavirus case was confirmed in HK, the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam stands at 20.8 marks. Her net popularity is negative 66 percentage points. Both popularity figures have not changed much from early January. The latest net satisfaction of the HKSAR Government stands at negative 60 percentage points while the net trust value is negative 50 percentage points. The latter is at its worst since the survey series began in 1992. People’s net satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions are negative 47, negative 52 and negative 79 percentage points respectively. People’s satisfaction with the current economic condition has registered a new record low since 2003.
As for the PSI, the latest figure is 52.2, down by 2.8 points from early January.