Latest People’s Appraisal of Society’s Current Conditions and Group Gathering Prohibition Index (GGPI) (2021-07-06)

Jul 06, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Detailed Findings

 

POP releases appraisals of society’s current conditions

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,014 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late June. Our survey shows that people’s net satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are negative 36, negative 38 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points. Using a one-in-three choices method, 44% and 28% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood and political problems respectively, while 23% attached their greatest concern to economic problems. Compared to half a year ago, the percentage of people most concerned with livelihood problems has dropped by 9 percentage points, while the percentage of people most concerned with economic problems has increased by 5 percentage points, registering a record high since 2013. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems are 7.43, 7.06 and 6.33 marks respectively. People’s concern over livelihood problems has registered a record low since 2017, while concern over political problems has registered a record low since December 2018. The effective response rate of the survey is 49.3%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-5% and that of ratings is +/-0.24 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	21-25/6/2021
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1]	:	1,014 (including 506 landline and 508 mobile samples)
Effective response rate	:	49.3%
Sampling error[2]	:	Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-5% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.24 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1]This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2]All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Latest Figures

People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows (the figures have been released in the press release on June 29):

Date of survey	18-22/1/21	24-26/2/21	22-25/3/21	19-22/4/21	17-21/5/21	21-25/6/21	Latest change
Sample size	1,011	1,000	1,010	1,004	1,004	1,014	—
Response rate	67.2%	57.2%	56.8%	54.5%	52.5%	49.3%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[3]	15%	19%[4]	17%	15%	18%	19+/-2%	+2%
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[3]	62%	62%	65%	64%	62%	56+/-3%	-6%[4]
Net satisfaction rate	-47%	-43%	-48%	-49%	-44%	-36+/-5%	+8%[4]
Mean value[3]	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.4+/-0.1	+0.2[4]
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[3]	13%	12%	12%	14%	17%[4]	18+/-2%	—
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[3]	67%	68%	66%	63%	60%	56+/-3%	-4%[4]
Net satisfaction rate	-54%	-56%	-54%	-49%	-43%	-38+/-5%	+5%
Mean value[3]	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.2[4]	2.3	2.4+/-0.1	+0.1[4]
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[3]	15%	18%	21%	20%	20%	20+/-3%	—
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[3]	63%	61%	61%	60%	61%	61+/-3%	+1%
Net satisfaction rate	-47%	-42%	-41%	-39%	-40%	-41+/-5%	-1%
Mean value[3]	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.2	2.1	2.1+/-0.1	—

[3]Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[4]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

People’s latest satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are 19%, 18% and 20% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 36, negative 38 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. The mean scores are between 2.1 and 2.4, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points.

The latest survey results on people’s level of concern for social problems are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	14-21/6/18	17-20/12/18	13-18/12/19	15-18/6/20	18-22/12/20	21-25/6/21	Latest change
Sample size	1,000	1,000	1,046	1,002	620	592	—
Response rate	59.6%	60.6%	61.6%	54.1%	68.7%	49.3%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Most concerned with livelihood problems	63%	66%	41%[6]	44%	53%[6]	44+/-4%	-9%[6]
Most concerned with political problems	16%	13%	40%[6]	35%[6]	24%[6]	28+/-4%	+4%
Most concerned with economic problems	18%	19%	16%	19%	18%	23+/-3%	+5%[6]
Rating on concern for livelihood problems[5]	7.45	7.46	7.57	7.84[6]	7.48[6]	7.43+/-0.18	-0.05[6]
Rating on concern for economic problems[5]	6.97[6]	6.99	6.90	7.32[6]	7.18	7.06+/-0.17	-0.12[6]
Rating on concern for political problems[5]	5.97	6.05	7.09[6]	7.24	6.87[6]	6.33+/-0.24	-0.55[6]

[5]From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit our website for details.

[6]The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest survey shows that using a one-in-three choices method, 44% and 28% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood and political problems respectively, while 23% attached their greatest concern to economic problems. Compared to half a year ago, the percentage of people most concerned with livelihood problems has dropped by 9 percentage points, while the percentage of people most concerned with economic problems has increased by 5 percentage points, registering a record high since 2013. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems are 7.43, 7.06 and 6.33 marks respectively. People’s concern over livelihood problems has registered a record low since 2017, while concern over political problems has registered a record low since December 2018.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 17 to 21 May, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 21 to 25 June, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

25/6/21	John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively.
24/6/21	Hong Kong confirms 7 cases of coronavirus disease, all related to coronavirus variant.
23/6/21	Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue.
22/6/21	Apple Daily stops updating several pages.
21/6/21	Next Digital may suspend publication if the request of unfreezing assets is not approved.
21/6/21	Hong Kong has not reported new local cases for 14 days. The government will relax anti-epidemic measures.
19/6/21	Two Next Digital senior executives are denied bail and remanded in custody.
18/6/21	The government announces the disbursement arrangement of electronic consumption vouchers.
17/6/21	Police arrests senior executives of Apple Daily and freezes assets of the company under the national security law.
14/6/21	G7 summit ends and issues communique that mentions China multiple times.
12/6/21	Luo Huining says people who shout “end one-party rule” are enemies of Hong Kong.
11/6/21	The government amends the “Film Censorship Ordinance” to ban exhibition of films that endanger national security.
10/6/21	NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”.
5/6/21	Hong Kong records an untraceable case involving coronavirus variant.
4/6/21	Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil.
31/5/21	The government plans to restrict unvaccinated persons from entering various premises.
30/5/21	The government and the business sector launch initiatives to encourage vaccination.
28/5/21	10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly.
27/5/21	The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system.
25/5/21	The government announces it will arrange vaccination for holders of the Exit-entry Permit and refugees.
21/5/21	Some universities and corporations launch initiatives to encourage vaccination.
20/5/21	Hong Kong reports no untraceable local cases for 27 consecutive days.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that people’s net satisfaction rates with the current livelihood, economic and political conditions are negative 36, negative 38 and negative 41 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for livelihood condition has significantly increased by 8 percentage points. Using a one-in-three choices method, 44% and 28% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood and political problems respectively, while 23% attached their greatest concern to economic problems. Compared to half a year ago, the percentage of people most concerned with livelihood problems has dropped by 9 percentage points, while the percentage of people most concerned with economic problems has increased by 5 percentage points, registering a record high since 2013. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems are 7.43, 7.06 and 6.33 marks respectively. People’s concern over livelihood problems has registered a record low since 2017, while concern over political problems has registered a record low since December 2018.