Dec 15, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Detailed Findings
Press Release on December 15, 2020
POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments
as well as five core social indicators
Special Announcements
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
According to the result of our public consultation conducted a while ago, the popularity survey of Directors of Bureaux have been thinned out to once every 2 months since the second half of this year. Therefore, today’s release only includes the popularity figures of CE and 3 Secretaries of Departments.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,009 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early December. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.6 marks, of which 45% of them gave her 0 mark. Her net popularity is negative 50 percentage points. Both popularity figures remain comparable to those registered half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 34 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan drops by 4.1 marks to 35.4 and his net popularity drops by 11 percentage points to negative 20. Both decrements have gone beyond its sampling error. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.3 marks and her net popularity is negative 49 percentage points. Her net popularity figures have not changed much from a month ago, but both figures have registered a new record high since June 2019. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators continue to be lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.68, 4.17, 4.11, 4.01 and 3.85 respectively. Compared with a month ago, rating of “prosperity” has dropped significantly and registered its new low since records began in 1997. The effective response rate of the survey is 70.0%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 7-10/12/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,009 (including 506 landline and 503 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 70.0% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-6% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and Secretaries of Departments
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 21-24/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 23-26/11/20[3] | 7-10/12/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,013 | 1,002 | 1,020 | 1,005 | 1,085 | 1,009 | — |
| Response rate | 61.5% | 62.8% | 62.2% | 63.9% | 74.6% | 70.0% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 27.5 | 28.6 | 27.2 | 30.8[4] | 33.5 | 30.6+/-2.2 | -2.9 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 17% | 18% | 18% | 21% | 21% | 20+/-3% | -2% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam | 71% | 72% | 74% | 69%[4] | 66% | 69+/-3% | +3% |
| Net approval rate | -53% | -53% | -56% | -48%[4] | -45% | -50+/-5% | -5% |
[3] POP conducted a Policy Address instant survey on 25/11/2020 in between two tracking surveys, the results are: CE rating at 26.8 marks, net approval rate at negative 57 percentage points. Because our tracking surveys do not use online samples, and our latest survey started two days before the Policy Address, it is better to compare the latest figures with those collected in our previous survey conducted on 9-13/11/2020.
[4] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey | 6-9/7/20 | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 5-8/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 524-596 | 503-655 | 649-689 | 593-642 | 608-636 | 574-657 | — |
| Response rate | 52.4% | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.8% | 63.9% | 70.0% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CS Matthew Cheung | 29.9 | 29.0 | 28.5 | 28.7 | 30.7 | 29.2+/-2.5 | -1.5 |
| Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
19% | 16% | 16% | 18% | 18% | 17+/-3% | -1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung |
52% | 55% | 54% | 50% | 50% | 51+/-4% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -33% | -39% | -39% | -32% | -32% | -34+/-6% | -1% |
| Rating of FS Paul Chan | 37.8 | 37.0 | 35.5 | 36.9 | 39.5 | 35.4+/-2.5 | -4.1[5] |
| Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan | 28% | 26% | 28% | 28% | 29% | 24+/-3% | -5% |
| Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan | 44% | 46% | 46% | 44% | 38%[5] | 44+/-4% | +6%[5] |
| Net approval rate | -16% | -20% | -18% | -16% | -9% | -20+/-6% | -11%[5] |
| Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng | 20.3 | 22.2 | 20.8 | 19.3 | 21.7 | 23.3+/-2.4 | +1.6 |
| Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 10% | 15%[5] | 13% | 12% | 13% | 14+/-3% | +1% |
| Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng | 68% | 67% | 69% | 68% | 64% | 63+/-4% | — |
| Net approval rate | -57% | -53% | -56% | -57% | -51% | -49+/-6% | +1% |
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.6 marks. Her approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 69%, giving a net popularity of negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.2 marks. His approval rate is 17%, disapproval rate 51%, giving a net popularity of negative 34 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan drops significantly by 4.1 marks to 35.4, approval rate 24%, disapproval rate 44%, thus a net popularity of negative 20 percentage points, down by 11 percentage points which goes beyond the sampling error. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.3 marks, approval rate 14%, disapproval rate 63%, giving a net popularity of negative 49 percentage points. Her rating and net popularity have not changed much from a month ago, but both figures have registered a new record high since June 2019.
Core Social Indicators
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 3-6/8/20 | 31/8-4/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 584-619 | 590-618 | 575-632 | 579-634 | 602-609 | — |
| Response rate | 64.4% | 58.4% | 62.2% | 63.9% | 70.0% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Degree of freedom | 4.74 | 4.13[6] | 4.60[6] | 4.60 | 4.68+/-0.27 | +0.09 |
| Degree of stability | 3.76[6] | 3.63 | 4.15[6] | 4.15 | 4.17+/-0.23 | +0.02 |
| Degree of prosperity | 4.19[6] | 4.15 | 4.30 | 4.57[6] | 4.11+/-0.19 | -0.45[6] |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 3.80 | 3.41[6] | 3.82[6] | 4.05 | 4.01+/-0.26 | -0.04 |
| Degree of democracy | 3.70[6] | 3.49 | 3.61 | 3.74 | 3.85+/-0.28 | +0.11 |
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators continue to be lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.68, 4.17, 4.11, 4.01 and 3.85 respectively. Compared with a month ago, rating of “prosperity” has dropped significantly and registered its new low since records began in 1997.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 9 to 13 November, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 7 to 10 December, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 8/12/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing. |
| 5/12/20 | Designated judge for national security cases Victor So receives death threat. |
| 3/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is denied bail and remanded in custody. |
| 2/12/20 | Former Demosistō member Joshua Wong, Ivan Lam and Agnes Chow are sentenced to 7 to 13.5 months in prison. |
| 30/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and sets up a hotline for reporting violations. |
| 26/11/20 | The Education Bureau introduces reforms to liberal studies. |
| 25/11/20 | Carrie Lam delivers her Policy Address. |
| 24/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and orders public venues to display QR codes for “Leave Home Safe”. |
| 21/11/20 | Police arrests 3 people including an online radio host who allegedly violated the national security law by providing financial assistance to secession. |
| 19/11/20 | The High Court rules that police officers not displaying their identification numbers violated the Bill of Rights. |
| 14/11/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures and imposes mandatory testing. |
| 11/11/20 | NPCSC disqualifies 4 democrats in LegCo. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 30.6 marks, of which 45% of them gave her 0 mark. Her net popularity is negative 50 percentage points. Both popularity figures remain comparable to those registered half a month ago.
As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 29.2 marks and his net popularity is negative 34 percentage points. The support rating of FS Paul Chan drops by 4.1 marks to 35.4 and his net popularity drops by 11 percentage points to negative 20. Both decrements have gone beyond its sampling error. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 23.3 marks and her net popularity is negative 49 percentage points. Her net popularity figures have not changed much from a month ago, but both figures have registered a new record high since June 2019.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators continue to be lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “stability”, “prosperity”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.68, 4.17, 4.11, 4.01 and 3.85 respectively. Compared with a month ago, rating of “prosperity” has dropped significantly and registered its new low since records began in 1997.