May 19, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Detailed Findings
Press Release on May 19, 2020
POP releases popularity figures of Hong Kong disciplinary forces
and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison
Special Announcements
- The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
- The survey on the Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison released today by POP is the last of its kind before July 1, 2020. Whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early May. Latest results show that the Auxiliary Medical Service becomes people’s most satisfied disciplinary force for the first time, with a rating of 77.4 marks. The 2nd and 3rd places go to the Fire Services Department and the Government Flying Service, with 76.6 and 71.7 marks respectively. The 4th to 8th ranks go to the Customs and Excise Department, the Civil Aid Service, the Immigration Department, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Correctional Services Department. Finally, the Police Force attains a rating of 36.8 marks, with 44% of the sample giving zero mark and continues to be the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate stands at negative 25 percentage points. The relative positions among the disciplinary forces have not changed much. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 44.2 marks. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 2 percentage points. Compared with half year ago, the ratings of the Correctional Services Department, the Immigration Department, the Customs and Excise Department, the Fire Services Department and the Auxiliary Medical Service have all dropped significantly, with the biggest drop registered for the Correctional Services Department. Meanwhile, the ratings of the Fire Services Department, the Customs and Excise Department, the Civil Aid Service, the Immigration Department, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Correctional Services Department are all at record lows since the relevant questions first started in 2012 or 2013, while the net satisfaction rate of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is at record low since the question was first asked in 1997. The effective response rate of the survey is 62.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-3.2 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 4-6/5/2020 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,004 (including 502 landline and 502 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 62.5% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-3.2 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Latest satisfaction ratings of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 15-19/11/18 | 3-6/6/19 | 1-6/8/19 | 21-26/11/19 | 4-6/5/20 | Latest change | |
| Sample size[4] | 538-579 | 528-656 | 1,015 | 584-650 | 536–672 | — | |
| Response rate | 67.9% | 60.4% | 62.8% | 67.7% | 62.5% | — | |
| Latest findings[5] | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | Recog % | — |
| Auxiliary Medical Service | 79.3{2} | 77.4{3} | — | 80.2{2}[6] | 77.4+/-1.6{1} | 95.6% | -2.8[6] |
| Fire Services Department | 82.9{1} | 83.1{1} | — | 80.5{1}[6] | 76.6+/-1.6{2} | 99.4% | -3.9[6] |
| Government Flying Service | 78.8{3} | 77.9{2} | — | 69.4{3}[6] | 71.7+/-1.6{3} | 94.7% | +2.3 |
| Customs and Excise Department | 74.1{4} | 73.4{4} | — | 68.7{4}[6] | 64.4+/-1.8{4} | 97.4% | -4.3[6] |
| Civil Aid Service | 73.3{5} | 69.9{6}[6] | — | 63.9{6}[6] | 62.9+/-2.0{5} | 88.7% | -0.9 |
| Immigration Department | 71.5{6}[6] [7] | 70.2{5} | — | 66.2{5}[6] | 60.8+/-2.3{6} | 96.3% | -5.3[6] |
| Independent Commission Against Corruption | 68.9{7} | 67.7{7} | — | 57.9{8}[6] | 54.8+/-2.3{7} | 98.1% | -3.1 |
| Correctional Services Department | 67.9{8} | 66.2{8} | — | 58.3{7}[6] | 51.6+/-2.4{8} | 92.1% | -6.7[6] |
| Police Force | 62.5{9} | 61.0{9} | 39.4[6] | 35.3{9}[6] | 36.8+/-3.2{9} | 99.1% | +1.5 |
| PLA Hong Kong Garrison | 57.8 | 56.8 | — | 44.2[6] | 44.2+/-3.2 | 86.9% | — |
[4] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[5] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings. From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the change would not have gone beyond the sampling error.
Latest satisfaction rates of the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison using the 5-point scale are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 21-25/5/18 | 15-19/11/18 | 3-6/6/19 | 21-26/11/19 | 4-6/5/20 | Latest change |
| Sample size[8] | 542-566 | 557-576 | 594-638 | 598-602 | 607–626 | — |
| Response rate | 55.9% | 67.9% | 60.4% | 67.7% | 62.5% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Satisfaction rate of the Police Force[9] |
54%[10] | 51% | 50% | 27%[10] | 34+/-4% | +7%[10] |
| Dissatisfaction rate of the Police Force[9] |
28%[10] | 28% | 28% | 65%[10] | 59+/-4% | -6%[10] |
| Net satisfaction rate | 26%[10] | 23% | 22% | -38%[10] | -25+/-8% | +12%[10] |
| Mean value[9] | 3.3[10] | 3.3 | 3.2 | 2.2[10] | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.2[10] |
| Satisfaction rate of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison[9] |
50% | 46% | 49% | 37%[10] | 39+/-4% | +2% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison[9] |
10% | 16%[10] | 14% | 33%[10] | 36+/-4% | +3% |
| Net satisfaction rate | 41% | 30%[10] | 35% | 3%[10] | 2+/-7% | -1% |
| Mean value[9] | 3.6 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.0[10] | 3.0+/-0.1 | — |
[8] Before March 2020, weighted count was used to report subsample size. Starting from March 2020, raw count was used instead.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, POP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit our website for details.
[10] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Survey shows that the 1st to 3rd places regarding people’s satisfaction with disciplinary forces go to the Auxiliary Medical Service, the Fire Services Department and the Government Flying Service, with rating of 77.4, 76.6 and 71.7 marks respectively. The 4th to 8th ranks go to the Customs and Excise Department, the Civil Aid Service, the Immigration Department, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Correctional Services Department, with ratings at 64.4, 62.9, 60.8, 54.8 and 51.6 marks respectively. Finally, the Police Force attains a rating of 36.8 marks, with 44% of the sample giving zero mark and continues to be the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its satisfaction rate is 34%, dissatisfaction rate 59%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 25 percentage points and a mean score of 2.4, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. The relative positions among the disciplinary forces have not changed much. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 44.2 marks. Its satisfaction rate is 39%, dissatisfaction rate 36%, giving a net satisfaction rate of positive 2 percentage points and a mean score of 3.0, meaning close to “half-half” in general.
Compared with half year ago, the ratings of the Correctional Services Department, the Immigration Department, the Customs and Excise Department, the Fire Services Department and the Auxiliary Medical Service have all dropped significantly, with the biggest drop registered for the Correctional Services Department. Meanwhile, the ratings of the Fire Services Department, the Customs and Excise Department, the Civil Aid Service, the Immigration Department, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Correctional Services Department are all at record lows since the relevant questions first started in 2012 or 2013, while the net satisfaction rate of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is at record low since the question was first asked in 1997.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 21 to 26 November, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 6 May, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 2/5/20 | Police finds explosives at an abandoned school. |
| 1/5/20 | People gather in multiple districts. |
| 18/4/20 | 15 pan-democrats including Martin Lee and Jimmy Lai are arrested. |
| 15/4/20 | Director of the Liaison Office Luo Huining says Hong Kong needs to safeguard national security. |
| 1/4/20 | The government orders karaoke lounges, mahjong parlors and nightclubs to close. |
| 29/3/20 | The enforcement on “Prohibition on Group Gathering” is judged to have grey areas. |
| 27/3/20 | The government announces the ban on gathering with more than 4 people. |
| 24/3/20 | 36 people breach 14-day home quarantine orders. |
| 23/3/20 | The government bans bars and restaurants from selling alcohol. |
| 17/3/20 | The government announces people entering Hong Kong from any foreign country will be put in a 14-day quarantine. |
| 8/3/20 | Police arrests during midnight 17 people who are suspected of making explosives. |
| 4/3/20 | The first batch of government-chartered flights bring back Hong Kong people in Hubei. |
| 28/2/20 | Police arrests Jimmy Lai, Lee Cheuk-yan and Yeung Sum. |
| 19/2/20 | The first batch of Hong Kong people on the cruise Diamond Princess return to Hong Kong by a charter flight. |
| 7/2/20 | The policy of putting people entering Hong Kong from mainland China in a 14-day quarantine takes effect. |
| 3/2/20 | The government announces further closure of borders. |
| 28/1/20 | The government announces partial border closure. |
| 19/1/20 | Rally at Central turns into a conflict between protestors and the police. |
| 1/1/20 | The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally. |
| 31/12/19 | Protesting activities occur in multiple districts on New Year’s Eve. |
| 25/12/19 | Protesting activities occur in multiple districts during Christmas. |
| 14/12/19 | Three men suspected of testing bombs in Tuen Mun are arrested. |
| 11/12/19 | All members of the Independent Police Complaints Council International Expert Panel quit. |
| 8/12/19 | The Civil Human Rights Front announces that around eight hundred thousand people participated in the International Human Rights Day protest. |
| 1/12/19 | Protesters march along Tsim Sha Tsui. |
| 29/11/19 | The police end its siege of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University. |
| 28/11/19 | US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. |
Data Analysis
Our latest survey shows that the Auxiliary Medical Service becomes people’s most satisfied disciplinary force for the first time, with a rating of 77.4 marks. The 2nd and 3rd places go to the Fire Services Department and the Government Flying Service, with 76.6 and 71.7 marks respectively. The 4th to 8th ranks go to the Customs and Excise Department, the Civil Aid Service, the Immigration Department, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Correctional Services Department. Finally, the Police Force attains a rating of 36.8 marks, with 44% of the sample giving zero mark and continues to be the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate stands at negative 25 percentage points. The relative positions among the disciplinary forces have not changed much. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 44.2 marks. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 2 percentage points.
Compared with half year ago, the ratings of the Correctional Services Department, the Immigration Department, the Customs and Excise Department, the Fire Services Department and the Auxiliary Medical Service have all dropped significantly, with the biggest drop registered for the Correctional Services Department. Meanwhile, the ratings of the Fire Services Department, the Customs and Excise Department, the Civil Aid Service, the Immigration Department, the Independent Commission Against Corruption and the Correctional Services Department are all at record lows since the relevant questions first started in 2012 or 2013, while the net satisfaction rate of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is at record low since the question was first asked in 1997.