Feb 04, 2020
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Detailed Findings
Press Release on February 4, 2020
POP releases findings on Hong Kong people’s feelings
towards different governments and people
Special Announcements
- The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
- The POP survey on Hong Kong people’s feelings towards different governments and peoples is the last survey before July 1, 2020, whether it will be continued or not will depend on public support.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 407 and 505 Hong Kong residents in a double stage random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in January. Our survey shows that before the first Wuhan Coronavirus case was confirmed in Hong Kong, Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. Among them, the net affinity for Chinese people and the governments of the United States, Macau, China and Hong Kong were negative. Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the governments of the United States and Japan have increased significantly, while the net affinity towards the peoples of Macau, the United Kingdom and Japan, as well as the governments of Hong Kong, Macau, the United Kingdom and China have decreased significantly. Looking back at past records, the net affinity towards the governments of Hong Kong, China and Macau are at their lowest since the survey series began in 1997, while those of the governments of Australia and the United Kingdom are at their lowest since 2000 and 2014 respectively. On the contrary, those of the governments of Taiwan and Japan are at their highest since the survey series began in 1997, while that of the government of the United States is also at its highest since 2009. Besides, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people of China is at their lowest since 2013, while that of the people of France is at its highest since the survey series began in 2007. The effective response rate of the evaluation stage survey is 71.2%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4% and that of net values is +/-7% at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Naming stage | Evaluation stage | ||
| Date of survey | : | 16-17/1/2020 | 20-21/1/2020 |
| Sample size[1] | : | 407 (including 204 landline and 203 mobile samples) |
505 (including 251 landline and 254 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 65.5% | 71.2% |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers | |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above | |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and that of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% conf. level | |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. | |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey, respondents could name, unprompted, up to 10 governments of countries or regions that they knew best apart from Hong Kong, Mainland, Taiwan and Macau. The top 5 nominees then entered the evaluation survey. In the evaluation survey, respondents were asked to rate their feeling towards the governments and peoples of Hong Kong, Mainland, Taiwan, Macau and the five countries or regions respectively. Hong Kong people’s feelings towards different governments and peoples are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 16-21/8/17 | 18-19/7/18 | 17-19/7/19 | 20-21/1/20 | ||
| Sample size | 763-811[7] | 502 | 592-633 | 505 | ||
| Response rate | 63.9% | 47.4% | 59.8% | 71.2% | ||
| Latest findings[4] | Findings | Findings | Findings | Finding & error | Latest change | |
| Hong Kong | People Positive | 46%[5] | 50% | 63%[5] | 57+/-4% | -6% |
| People Negative | 13% | 14% | 12% | 13+/-3% | +1% | |
| Net value | 34%[5] | 36% | 51%[5] | 44+/-6% | -6% | |
| Government Positive | 40%[5] | 38% | 26%[5] | 13+/-3% | -13%[5] | |
| Government Negative | 32%[5] | 34% | 58%[5] | 74+/-4% | +16%[5] | |
| Net value | 9%[5] | 4% | -32%[5] | -61+/-6% | -29%[5] | |
| China | People Positive | 32% | 31% | 30% | 30+/-4% | — |
| People Negative | 27% | 29% | 34% | 37+/-4% | +3% | |
| Net value | 4% | 2% | -4% | -7+/-7% | -3% | |
| Government Positive | 32% | 31% | 25%[5] | 23+/-4% | -2% | |
| Government Negative | 35% | 39% | 51%[5] | 59+/-4% | +8%[5] | |
| Net value | -3% | -8% | -26%[5] | -36+/-7% | -10%[5] | |
| Taiwan | People Positive | 60%[5] | 67%[5] [6] | 76%[5] | 74+/-4% | -2% |
| People Negative | 4% | 5% | 2%[5] | 4+/-2% | +3%[5] | |
| Net value | 56% | 62% | 75%[5] | 69+/-5% | -5% | |
| Government Positive | 24%[5] | 34%[5] | 52%[5] | 55+/-4% | +3% | |
| Government Negative | 22%[5] | 25% | 19%[5] | 18+/-3% | -1% | |
| Net value | 2%[5] | 9% | 33%[5] | 37+/-7% | +4% | |
| Macau | People Positive | 44%[5] | 51%[5] | 62%[5] | 51+/-4% | -11%[5] |
| People Negative | 4%[5] | 4% | 3% | 9+/-3% | +7%[5] | |
| Net value | 40%[5] | 47%[5] | 60%[5] | 42+/-6% | -18%[5] | |
| Government Positive | 34% | 37% | 43%[5] | 31+/-4% | -12%[5] | |
| Government Negative | 17% | 22%[5] [6] | 23% | 35+/-4% | +12%[5] | |
| Net value | 18% | 15% | 20% | -4+/-7% | -24%[5] | |
[4] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.
[7] The mobile sample was not included when survey results were released. The figures in the table above have been updated to reflect the results based on the combined landline and mobile sample. However, whether changes have gone beyond sampling errors is still determined based on the figures in the first release.
Hong Kong people’s feelings towards some other governments and peoples are summarized as follows, in descending order of net values towards the peoples:
| Date of survey | 16-21/8/17 | 18-19/7/18 | 17-19/7/19 | 20-21/1/20 | ||
| Sample size | 765-807[11] | 502 | 598-616 | 505 | ||
| Response rate | 63.9% | 47.4% | 59.8% | 71.2% | ||
| Latest findings[8] | Findings | Findings | Findings | Finding & error | Latest change | |
| Japan | People Positive | 59%[9] | 68%[9] | 76%[9] | 71+/-4% | -5% |
| People Negative | 7% | 6% | 3%[9] | 7+/-2% | +4%[9] | |
| Net value | 52% | 63%[9] | 73%[9] | 64+/-5% | -8%[9] | |
| Government Positive | 21% | 33%[9] | 39%[9] | 46+/-4% | +7%[9] | |
| Government Negative | 39% | 31%[9] | 27% | 17+/-3% | -9%[9] | |
| Net value | -18% | 2%[9] | 12%[9] | 29+/-7% | +16%[9] | |
| Australia | People Positive | 45% | 60%[9] | — | 54+/-4% | — |
| People Negative | 3% | 3% | — | 4+/-2% | — | |
| Net value | 42% | 57%[9] | — | 50+/-5% | — | |
| Government Positive | 39%[9] | 50%[9] | — | 38+/-4% | — | |
| Government Negative | 3% | 6%[9] | — | 12+/-3% | — | |
| Net value | 36%[9] | 43%[9] [10] | — | 26+/-6% | — | |
| United Kingdom | People Positive | 46% | 54%[9] | 63%[9] | 51+/-4% | -13%[9] |
| People Negative | 5% | 6% | 5% | 6+/-2% | +1% | |
| Net value | 42% | 48% | 58%[9] | 44+/-5% | -14%[9] | |
| Government Positive | 38%[9] | 46%[9] | 51% | 40+/-4% | -10%[9] | |
| Government Negative | 12%[9] | 14% | 17% | 21+/-4% | +4% | |
| Net value | 26%[9] | 32% | 34% | 19+/-7% | -14%[9] | |
| France | People Positive | 34% | 41%[9] | 42% | 43+/-4% | +1% |
| People Negative | 7% | 5% | 6% | 6+/-2% | — | |
| Net value | 28% | 35%[9] | 36% | 37+/-5% | +1% | |
| Government Positive | 26% | 34%[9] | 33% | 32+/-4% | -2% | |
| Government Negative | 7% | 5% | 10%[9] | 13+/-3% | +3% | |
| Net value | 19% | 29%[9] | 23% | 18+/-6% | -4% | |
| United States | People Positive | 34% | 39% | 48%[9] | 47+/-4% | -1% |
| People Negative | 11% | 15%[9] | 9%[9] | 12+/-3% | +3% | |
| Net value | 23% | 24% | 39%[9] | 35+/-6% | -4% | |
| Government Positive | 14%[9] | 15% | 24%[9] | 33+/-4% | +9%[9] | |
| Government Negative | 49%[9] | 56%[9] | 48%[9] | 36+/-4% | -13%[9] | |
| Net value | -35%[9] | -41% | -24%[9] | -2+/-7% | +22%[9] | |
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[9] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[10] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the difference would not have gone beyond the sampling error.
[11] The mobile sample was not included when survey results were released. The figures in the table above have been updated to reflect the results based on the combined landline and mobile sample. However, whether changes have gone beyond sampling errors is still determined based on the figures in the first release.
Our latest survey shows that, in terms of net affinity, Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. As regards people’s feeling towards different peoples, from high to low net affinity, the order goes: Taiwan, Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, Macau, France, the United States and China. Among them, only the net affinity for Chinese people was negative. Regarding people’s feeling towards different governments, from high to low net affinity, the order goes: Taiwan, Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom, France, the United States, Macau, China and Hong Kong. Among them, the net affinity for the governments of the United States, Macau, China and Hong Kong were negative.
Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the governments of the United States and Japan have increased significantly, while the net affinity towards the peoples of Macau, the United Kingdom and Japan, as well as the governments of Hong Kong, Macau, the United Kingdom and China have decreased significantly.
Looking back at past records, the net affinity towards the governments of Hong Kong, China and Macau are at their lowest since the survey series began in 1997, while those of the governments of Australia and the United Kingdom are at their lowest since 2000 and 2014 respectively. On the contrary, those of the governments of Taiwan and Japan are at their highest since the survey series began in 1997, while that of the government of the United States is also at its highest since 2009. Besides, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people of China is at their lowest since 2013, while that of the people of France is at its highest since the survey series began in 2007.
It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 17 to 19 July, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 20 to 21 January, 2020. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 21/1/20 | Wuhan pneumonia continues to spread rapidly and into Taiwan. |
| 20/1/20 | Wuhan pneumonia spreads rapidly in China. |
| 19/1/20 | Rally at Central turns into a conflict between protestors and the police. |
| 16/1/20 | China and the US sign phase one of the trade deal. |
| 14/1/20 | The government announces ten initiatives to benefit livelihoods of the people. |
| 13/1/20 | The government plans to provide over $10 billion to Ocean Park as a subsidy. |
| 11/1/20 | Tsai Ing-wen wins Taiwan’s presidential election. |
| 9/1/20 | Experts say Wuhan pneumonia is caused by a new coronavirus. |
| 8/1/20 | Iran fires missiles at US military bases in Iraq as revenge. |
| 7/1/20 | The government adds Wuhan pneumonia to the list of notifiable diseases. |
| 4/1/20 | Luo Huining is appointed the Director of the Liaison Office. |
| 3/1/20 | Wuhan authorities announce an increase of pneumonia cases to 44. |
| 2/1/20 | A woman back from Wuhan has symptoms of pneumonia. |
| 1/1/20 | The Civil Human Rights Front organizes the New Year Rally. |
| 18/12/19 | Xi Jinping visits Macau. |
| 16/12/19 | Carrie Lam pays a duty visit to Beijing. |
| 28/11/19 | US President Donald Trump signs the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act. |
| 25/11/19 | The pro-democracy camp wins a majority of seats in the District Councils. |
| 16/11/19 | The People’s Liberation Army clears roadblocks. |
| 14/11/19 | Xi Jinping expresses his views on Hong Kong. |
| 6/11/19 | Vice Premier of the State Council Han Zheng meets with Carrie Lam. |
| 1/11/19 | The press conference on the Fourth Plenary Session of the 19th Communist Party of China Central Committee is held. |
| 22/10/19 | Taiwan requests to send officers to Hong Kong to escort Chan Tong-kai to Taiwan for trial. |
Data Analysis
Our survey before the first Wuhan Coronavirus case was confirmed in Hong Kong shows that Hong Kong people feel more positively about all other peoples than their governments. Among them, the net affinity for Chinese people and the governments of the United States, Macau, China and Hong Kong were negative. Compared to half a year ago, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the governments of the United States and Japan have increased significantly, while the net affinity towards the peoples of Macau, the United Kingdom and Japan, as well as the governments of Hong Kong, Macau, the United Kingdom and China have decreased significantly.
Looking back at past records, the net affinity towards the governments of Hong Kong, China and Macau are at their lowest since the survey series began in 1997, while those of the governments of Australia and the United Kingdom are at their lowest since 2000 and 2014 respectively. On the contrary, those of the governments of Taiwan and Japan are at their highest since the survey series began in 1997, while that of the government of the United States is also at its highest since 2009. Besides, the net affinity of Hong Kong people towards the people of China is at their lowest since 2013, while that of the people of France is at its highest since the survey series began in 2007.