January 19, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Detailed Findings
POP releases five core social indicators
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early January. Our survey shows that, on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators continue to be lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.45, 4.09, 4.04, 3.80 and 3.56 respectively. Compared with a month ago, all social indicators have declined slightly, of which the rating of “prosperity” has again registered a new low since records began in 1997. The effective response rate of the survey is 58.5%. The maximum sampling error of ratings is +/-0.28 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 4-8/1/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 492 landline and 508 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 58.5% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.28 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2019”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2019 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:
| Date of survey | 31/8-4/9/20 | 19-22/10/20 | 9-13/11/20 | 7-10/12/20 | 4-8/1/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 590-618 | 575-632 | 579-634 | 602-609 | 594-604 | — |
| Response rate | 58.4% | 62.2% | 63.9% | 70.0% | 58.5% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Degree of freedom | 4.13[3] | 4.60[3] | 4.60 | 4.68 | 4.45+/-0.27 | -0.23 |
| Degree of prosperity | 4.15 | 4.30 | 4.57[3] | 4.11[3] | 4.09+/-0.22 | -0.02 |
| Degree of stability | 3.63 | 4.15[3] | 4.15 | 4.17 | 4.04+/-0.24 | -0.12 |
| Compliance with the rule of law | 3.41[3] | 3.82[3] | 4.05 | 4.01 | 3.80+/-0.25 | -0.21 |
| Degree of democracy | 3.49 | 3.61 | 3.74 | 3.85 | 3.56+/-0.28 | -0.29 |
[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators continue to be lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.45, 4.09, 4.04, 3.80 and 3.56 respectively. Compared with a month ago, all social indicators have declined slightly, of which the rating of “prosperity” has again registered a new low since records began in 1997.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 7 to 10 December, 2020 while this survey was conducted from 4 to 8 January, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 6/1/21 | Police arrests 53 democrats involved in the pro-democracy primaries who allegedly violated the national security law. |
| 5/1/21 | Geoffrey Ma says details and justifications are needed to call for judicial reform. |
| 4/1/21 | The government announces extension of anti-epidemic measures. Face-to-face classes are suspended in kindergartens, primary and secondary schools until the Lunar New Year holidays. |
| 2/1/21 | The government does not rule out mandatory use of the “LeaveHomeSafe” app. |
| 2/1/21 | The government expects to provide vaccinations to the public in February at the earliest. |
| 31/12/20 | The Court of Final Appeal grants leave to appeal to the Department of Justice. Jimmy Lai is remanded in custody. |
| 30/12/20 | Ten among the 12 Hong Kong people case are sentenced to 7 months to 3 years in prison, while two minors are transferred to Hong Kong. |
| 28/12/20 | Mandatory testing is ordered after coronavirus is detected in the sewage from a building. |
| 26/12/20 | Coronavirus outbreak occurs in United Christian Hospital. |
| 25/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is granted bail, but barred from leaving home, giving interviews and publishing articles. |
| 23/12/20 | The government sets up indemnity fund for vaccine and lets citizens choose which type of vaccine to take. |
| 21/12/20 | New strains of COVID-19 virus are found in the UK. The Hong Kong government bans passenger flights from the UK. |
| 17/12/20 | The government launches the fourth round of the Anti-epidemic Fund. |
| 12/12/20 | Jimmy Lai is additionally charged with “collusion with a foreign country or with external elements to endanger national security”. |
| 11/12/20 | The government has made procurement deals on COVID-19 vaccine and expects arrival and vaccination in January the earliest. |
| 8/12/20 | The government tightens anti-epidemic measures again and empower authorities to impose lockdown and mandatory testing. |
Data Analysis
The latest survey shows that, on a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on all five core social indicators continue to be lower than 5 marks. Ranked from the highest to the lowest are “freedom”, “prosperity”, “stability”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.45, 4.09, 4.04, 3.80 and 3.56 respectively. Compared with a month ago, all social indicators have declined slightly, of which the rating of “prosperity” has again registered a new low since records began in 1997.