Jul 27, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
Detailed Findings
Special Announcement
The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,000 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in mid-July. Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.7 marks, with 39% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 48 percentage points. All these figures have not changed much from half a month ago, but her rating has registered a record high since early June 2019. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest net satisfaction stands at negative 34 percentage points, while the net trust value stands at negative 12, the latter registering a record high since January 2019. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, economic and livelihood conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 30, negative 33 and negative 36 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for political condition has significantly increased by 11 percentage points, registering a record high since December 2011. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 81.1, up by 4.0 points from early July, registering a record high since early June 2019. The effective response rate of the survey is 48.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-8% and that of ratings is +/-2.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 19-22/7/2021 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,000 (including 499 landline and 501 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate | : | 48.5% |
| Sampling error[2] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-8% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.1 at 95% conf. level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”. |
- [1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
- [2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Popularity of CE and SAR Government
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 3-7/5/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 7-10/6/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 30/6-8/7/21 | 19-22/7/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,013 | 1,004 | 1,008 | 1,014 | 1,003 | 1,000 | — |
| Response rate | 55.5% | 52.5% | 55.1% | 49.3% | 46.4% | 48.5% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Rating of CE Carrie Lam | 30.4 | 30.8 | 30.3 | 29.8 | 34.0[3] | 34.7+/-2.1 | +0.6 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
17% | 18% | 16% | 17% | 20% | 20+/-3% | — |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
71% | 68% | 70% | 70% | 67% | 68+/-3% | +1% |
| Net approval rate | -54% | -50% | -53% | -53% | -47% | -48+/-5% | -1% |
- [3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 519 | 570-630 | 548-613 | 566-646 | 544-583 | 564-624 | — |
| Response rate | 57.2% | 56.8% | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | 48.5% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] | 23%[5] | 21% | 19% | 17% | 24%[5] | 24+/-3% | — |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[4] | 56% | 62%[5] | 59% | 63% | 60% | 58+/-4% | -2% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -33%[5] | -42% | -40% | -46% | -36%[5] | -34+/-7% | +2% |
| Mean value[4] | 2.3[5] | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.3[5] | 2.3+/-0.1 | — |
| Trust in HKSAR Government[4] | 36%[5] | 32% | 32% | 31% | 34% | 38+/-4% | +5% |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government[4] | 50% | 53% | 52% | 54% | 52% | 50+/-4% | -1% |
| Net trust | -14% | -21% | -20% | -22% | -18% | -12+/-8% | +6% |
| Mean value[4] | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.6 | 2.7+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
- [4] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
- [5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey | 24-26/2/21 | 22-25/3/21 | 19-22/4/21 | 17-21/5/21 | 21-25/6/21 | 19-22/7/21 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,000 | 1,010 | 1,004 | 1,004 | 1,014 | 1,000 | — |
| Response rate | 57.2% | 56.8% | 54.5% | 52.5% | 49.3% | 48.5% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Current political condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
18% | 21% | 20% | 20% | 20% | 26+/-3% | +6%[7] |
| Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
61% | 61% | 60% | 61% | 61% | 57+/-3% | -5%[7] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -42% | -41% | -39% | -40% | -41% | -30+/-5% | +11%[7] |
| Mean value[6] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.3+/-0.1 | +0.2[7] |
| Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
12% | 12% | 14% | 17%[7] | 18% | 20+/-3% | +3% |
| Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
68% | 66% | 63% | 60% | 56%[7] | 54+/-3% | -2% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -56% | -54% | -49% | -43% | -38% | -33+/-5% | +5% |
| Mean value[6] | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.2[7] | 2.3 | 2.4[7] | 2.4+/-0.1 | +0.1 |
| Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate[6] |
19%[7] | 17% | 15% | 18% | 19% | 21+/-3% | +1% |
| Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate[6] |
62% | 65% | 64% | 62% | 56%[7] | 57+/-3% | +1% |
| Net satisfaction rate | -43% | -48% | -49% | -44% | -36%[7] | -36+/-5% | — |
| Mean value[6] | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.4[7] | 2.4+/-0.1 | — |
- [6] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
- [7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.7 marks, with 39% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 48 percentage points. All these figures have not changed much from half a month ago, but her rating has registered a record high since early June 2019.
Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 24%, whereas dissatisfaction rate stands at 58%, thus the net satisfaction is negative 34 percentage points. The mean score is 2.3, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 38% of the respondents expressed trust, 50% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 12 percentage points. The mean score is 2.7, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general. All these figures have not changed much from a month ago, but the net trust value has registered a record high since January 2019.
As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, economic and livelihood conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 26%, 20% and 21% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 30, negative 33 and negative 36 percentage points respectively. The mean scores are between 2.3 and 2.4, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “half-half” in general. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for political condition has significantly increased by 11 percentage points, registering a record high since December 2011.
Public Sentiment Index
The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.
The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:
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| Latest figure | Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 81.1 (+4.0) |
Government Appraisal (GA): 75.7 (+2.0) |
Society Appraisal (SA): 83.3 (+5.1) |
Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:
| Cut-off date | 7/5/21 | 21/5/21 | 10/6/21 | 25/6/21 | 8/7/21 | 22/7/21 | Latest change |
| Public Sentiment Index (PSI) | 70.6 | 70.4 | 70.0 | 75.6 | 77.1 | 81.1 | +4.0 |
| Government Appraisal (GA) | 69.4 | 68.7 | 68.1 | 70.9 | 73.6 | 75.7 | +2.0 |
| Rating of CE | 30.4 | 30.8 | 30.3 | 29.8 | 34.0 | 34.7 | +0.6 |
| Net approval rate of CE | -54% | -50% | -53% | -53% | -47% | -48% | -1% |
| Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG | 2.2[8] | 2.1 | 2.1[8] | 2.3 | 2.3[8] | 2.3 | — |
| Mean value of people’s trust in SARG | 2.5[8] | 2.5 | 2.5[8] | 2.6 | 2.6[8] | 2.7 | +0.1 |
| Society Appraisal (SA) | 70.8[8] | 71.1 | 71.1[8] | 78.3 | 78.1[8] | 83.3 | +5.1 |
| People’s satisfaction with political condition | 2.2[8] | 2.1 | 2.1[8] | 2.1 | 2.1[8] | 2.3 | +0.2 |
| Weighting index of political condition | 0.32[8] | 0.32[8] | 0.32[8] | 0.32[8] | 0.31[8] | 0.31[8] | — |
| People’s satisfaction with economic condition | 2.2[8] | 2.3 | 2.3[8] | 2.4 | 2.4[8] | 2.4 | +0.1 |
| Weighting index of economic condition | 0.33[8] | 0.33[8] | 0.33[8] | 0.33[8] | 0.34[8] | 0.34[8] | — |
| People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition | 2.2[8] | 2.2 | 2.2[8] | 2.4 | 2.4[8] | 2.4 | — |
| Weighting index of livelihood condition | 0.35[8] | 0.35[8] | 0.35[8] | 0.35[8] | 0.35[8] | 0.35[8] | — |
- [8] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.
As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:
| Score value | Percentile | Score value | Percentile |
| 140-200 | Highest 1% | 0-60 | Lowest 1% |
| 125 | Highest 5% | 75 | Lowest 5% |
| 120 | Highest 10% | 80 | Lowest 10% |
| 110 | Highest 25% | 90 | Lowest 25% |
| 100 being normal level, meaning half above half below | |||
The latest PSI stands at 81.1, up by 4.0 points from early July. It can be considered as among the worst 10% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance increases by 2.0 points to 75.7, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 5.1 points to 83.3. They can be considered as among the worst 5% and 13% across the past 20 years or so respectively. PSI, GA and SA have all registered record highs since early June 2019.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 21 to 25 June, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 19 to 23 July, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
| 16/7/21 | Xia Baolong spells out five qualities people who govern Hong Kong must possess. |
| 11/7/21 | Hong Kong confirms a case of coronavirus disease, leading to compulsory testing for tens of thousands of airport staff. |
| 8/7/21 | Two towers of The Pavilia Farm III will be demolished and rebuilt for failing to meet concrete strength requirement. |
| 6/7/21 | Police arrests nine people who allegedly plotted terrorist attacks. |
| 5/7/21 | Mainland and Hong Kong officials attend a legal forum on national security law. |
| 4/7/21 | Police arrests two people who allegedly incited violence online. |
| 4/7/21 | Consumption voucher scheme opens for registration. |
| 3/7/21 | The government calls the July 1 stabbing a “lone wolf terrorist attack”. |
| 2/7/21 | A man kills himself after stabbing a police officer in Causeway Bay. |
| 25/6/21 | John Lee, Chris Tang and Raymond Siu are appointed as Chief Secretary, Secretary for Security and Commissioner of Police respectively. |
| 24/6/21 | Hong Kong confirms 7 cases of coronavirus disease, all related to coronavirus variant. |
| 23/6/21 | Apple Daily prints one million copies of its final issue. |
| 22/6/21 | Apple Daily stops updating several pages. |
| 21/6/21 | Next Digital may suspend publication if the request of unfreezing assets is not approved. |
Data Analysis
Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 34.7 marks, with 39% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 48 percentage points. All these figures have not changed much from half a month ago, but her rating has registered a record high since early June 2019. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest net satisfaction stands at negative 34 percentage points, while the net trust value stands at negative 12, the latter registering a record high since January 2019. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, economic and livelihood conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 30, negative 33 and negative 36 percentage points respectively. Compared to last month, the net satisfaction rate for political condition has significantly increased by 11 percentage points, registering a record high since December 2011.
As for the PSI, the latest figure is 81.1, up by 4.0 points from early July, registering a record high since early June 2019.