Dec 30, 2019
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials
POP releases results of the 2019 review and 2020 forecast survey
Special Announcements
- The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.
- HKPOP’s usual practice is to release its “year-end survey series” before the end of each year for public consumption. This “Year-end Review” is the last survey series to release this year.
- POP started the Macau Study Series twenty-eight years ago. It included regular surveys and electoral studies, in hopes of building towards a regional, scientific public opinion survey mechanism, creating a robust systemic database for future comparative studies. After 28 years, we would like to let the people (especially Macau people) decide whether we should continue or not. We are using the crowdfunding platform https://www.collaction.hk/project/story/1300/ with a goal of HKD 240,000 to let people decide. If the target is reached, we will swiftly conduct our next survey. For details of our previous Macau studies, please visit: https://www.pori.hk/macau-annual-survey-index.
Abstract
POP successfully interviewed 1,067 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of December. Latest results show that net satisfaction with Hong Kong’s development in the year past stands at negative 75 percentage points, the worst since the survey series started at the end of 1992. Looking ahead, net optimism toward Hong Kong’s development next year in general stands at negative 36 percentage points, also a record low since the end of 2008. Besides, 18% considered constitutional development to be the most important issue that the government should tackle next year; 14% thought about police-related issues or the setting up of an independent commission of inquiry; 11% thought the government should respond to public opinion or the five demands; 8% thought about protesters-related issues or stopping violence and disorder; the percentage of people who found housing to be the most important issue plunged 33 percentage points from that of last year to 8%, registering a record low since the end of 2009. If people had to choose between having a prosperous, corruption-free, fair, free and welfare society, most would wish Hong Kong to become a fair society, followed by a free, corruption-free and prosperous society. At an individual level, net happiness value in the year past stands at negative 38 percentage points, the first negative value registered since the survey series began at the end of 1992, and also a dramatic plunge of 79 percentage points when compared to same time last year. As for personal development in the coming year, net optimism stands at negative 7 percentage points, the lowest since the question was first asked at the end of 1993. As for people’s New Year wishes, 65% were society-related, the highest since the survey series started at the end of 1992, 12% were world peace-related, while only 9% were related to personal matters, the lowest since the survey series started. The effective response rate of the survey is 61.6%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3%, that of net values is +/-5% and that of ratings is +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
| Date of survey | : | 18-23/12/2019 |
| Survey method | : | Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
| Target population | : | Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
| Sample size[1] | : | 1,067 (including 526 landline and 541 mobile samples) |
| Effective response rate[2] | : | 61.6% |
| Sampling error[3] | : | Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3%, that of net values not more than +/-5% and that of ratings not more than +/-0.1 at 95% confidence level |
| Weighting method | : | Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, POP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
Latest Figures
Herewith the figures of 2019 review and 2020 forecast, compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:
| Date of survey | 19-22/12/16 | 18-19/12/17 | 17-20/12/18 | 18-23/12/19 | Latest change |
| Sample size | 1,009 | 648 | 1,000 | 1,067 | — |
| Response rate | 70.9% | 64.9% | 60.6% | 61.6% | — |
| Latest findings | Finding | Finding | Finding | Finding & error | — |
| Satisfied with HK’s development in the year past[4] | 23% | 38%[5] | 36% | 9+/-2% | -27%[5] |
| Dissatisfied with HK’s development in the year past[4] | 52%[5] | 35%[5] | 37% | 84+/-2% | +47%[5] |
| Net satisfaction rate | -29% | 3%[5] | -1% | -75+/-4% | -74%[5] |
| Mean value[4] | 2.5 | 3.0[5] | 2.9 | 1.6+/-0.1 | -1.3[5] |
| Expected HK’s development to be better next year | 39%[5] | 39% | 23%[5] | 23+/-3% | — |
| Expected HK’s development to be worse next year | 26%[5] | 29% | 50%[5] | 59+/-3% | +10%[5] |
| Net optimism | 13%[5] | 10% | -27%[5] | -36+/-5% | -10%[5] |
| Perceived …… to be the most important issue to be tackled by the government next year | — | ||||
| – Constitutional development | 15%[5] | 15% | 6%[5] | 18+/-2% | +12%[5] |
| – Police-related issues / setting up of an independent commission of inquiry | — | — | — | 14+/-2% | — |
| – Responding to public opinion / the five demands | — | — | — | 11+/-2% | — |
| – Protesters-related issues / stopping violence and disorder | — | — | — | 8+/-2% | — |
| – Housing | 30%[5] | 40%[5] | 41% | 8+/-2% | -33%[5] |
| – Economy | 15%[5] | 11%[5] | 12% | 7+/-2% | -5%[5] |
| – Law and order | 1% | <1% | 1% | 6+/-1% | +5%[5] |
| – Anti-extradition bill incident | — | — | — | 6+/-1% | — |
| – Politics | — | — | — | 4+/-1% | — |
| – Livelihood | — | — | — | 2+/-1% | — |
| – Welfare | 4% | 2%[5] | 4%[5] | 2+/-1% | -3%[5] |
| – Principal officials to be held accountable / to step down | — | — | — | 1+/-1% | — |
| – Government’s own problem | — | — | — | 1+/-1% | — |
| – Education | 2%[5] | 5%[5] | 3%[5] | 1+/-1% | -2%[5] |
| – Medical / health | 5%[5] | 8%[5] | 11%[5] | 1+/-1% | -10%[5] |
| Wished HK to become a fair society | 21% | 24% | 24% | 27+/-3% | +3% |
| Wished HK to become a free society | 16% | 14% | 15% | 25+/-3% | +9%[5] |
| Wished HK to become a corruption-free society | 31%[5] | 29% | 26% | 22+/-3% | -4%[5] |
| Wished HK to become a prosperous society | 21% | 22% | 19% | 20+/-2% | +1% |
| Wished HK to become a welfare society | 9% | 8% | 13%[5] | 4+/-1% | -10%[5] |
| Respondents who were happy in the year past[4] | 50% | 56%[5] | 55% | 20+/-2% | -36%[5] |
| Respondents who were unhappy in the year past[4] | 20%[5] | 20% | 15%[5] | 58+/-3% | +43%[5] |
| Net happiness value | 31% | 36% | 40% | -38+/-5% | -79%[5] |
| Mean value[4] | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5[5] | 2.3+/-0.1 | -1.2[5] |
| Expected personal development to become better next year | 44%[5] | 39%[5] | 39% | 31+/-3% | -8%[5] |
| Expected personal development to become worse next year | 13%[5] | 15% | 17% | 38+/-3% | +21%[5] |
| Net optimism | 30%[5] | 24%[5] | 22% | -7+/-5% | -29%[5] |
| New Year wishes: Society-related (e.g. economic related, people’s livelihood, political related and others) | 48%[5] | 38%[5] | 39% | 65+/-3% | +26%[5] |
| New Year wishes: World peace-related | 13% | 16% | 8%[5] | 12+/-2% | +4%[5] |
| New Year wishes: Personal matters (e.g. health, career, studies, wealth, family, love, marriage, friendship and other personal issues) | 26%[5] | 31%[5] | 34% | 9+/-2% | -25%[5] |
| No special wish | 9% | 9% | 9% | 8+/-2% | -2% |
[4] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[6] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the changes would not have gone beyond the sampling errors.
Our annual survey shows that 9% were satisfied with Hong Kong’s development in the year past, 84% were dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction of negative 75 percentage points. The mean score is 1.6, which is between “quite dissatisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general. The situation is at its worst since the survey series started at the end of 1992. Looking ahead, 23% expected Hong Kong’s development in general to become better next year, 59% said it would be worse, giving a net optimism of negative 36 percentage points, registering a record low since the end of 2008.
Regarding the most pressing issues that the government should tackle next year, 18% considered constitutional development the most important; 14% thought about police-related issues or the setting up of an independent commission of inquiry; 11% thought the government should respond to public opinion or the five demands; 8% thought about protesters-related issues or stopping violence and disorder; the percentage of people who found housing to be the most important issue plunged 33 percentage points from that of last year to 8%, registering a record low since the end of 2009.
If people had to choose between having a prosperous, corruption-free, fair, free and welfare society, 27% would wish Hong Kong to become a fair society, followed by a free society, as chosen by 25% of respondents, registering its historical high since the survey series began in end of 1993. Percentages of those who chose corruption-free and prosperous society were 22% and 20% respectively. Only 4% wished Hong Kong to become a welfare society, registering a significant 10-percentage-points drop from that of last year.
At an individual level, 20% said they lived a happy life in the year past, 58% said they were not happy, giving a net happiness value of negative 38 percentage points, which is the first negative value registered since the survey series began at the end of 1992, and also a dramatic plunge of 79 percentage points when compared to same time last year. The mean score is 2.3, which is between “half-half” and “quite unhappy” in general. As for the coming year, 31% believed their personal development would become better, 38% thought they would be worse off, giving a net optimism of negative 7 percentage points, the lowest since the question was first asked at the end of 1993.
As for people’s New Year wishes, 65% were society-related, the highest since the survey series started at the end of 1992, 12% were world peace-related, while only 9% were related to personal matters, the lowest since the survey series started.
Data Analysis
Our annual survey shows that net satisfaction with Hong Kong’s development in the year past stands at negative 75 percentage points, the worst since the survey series started at the end of 1992. Looking ahead, net optimism toward Hong Kong’s development next year in general stands at negative 36 percentage points, also a record low since the end of 2008.
Besides, 18% considered constitutional development to be the most important issue that the government should tackle next year; 14% thought about police-related issues or the setting up of an independent commission of inquiry; 11% thought the government should respond to public opinion or the five demands; 8% thought about protesters-related issues or stopping violence and disorder; the percentage of people who found housing to be the most important issue plunged 33 percentage points from that of last year to 8%, registering a record low since the end of 2009.
If people had to choose between having a prosperous, corruption-free, fair, free and welfare society, most would wish Hong Kong to become a fair society, followed by a free, corruption-free and prosperous society.
At an individual level, net happiness value in the year past stands at negative 38 percentage points, the first negative value registered since the survey series began at the end of 1992, and also a dramatic plunge of 79 percentage points when compared to same time last year. As for personal development in the coming year, net optimism stands at negative 7 percentage points, the lowest since the question was first asked at the end of 1993.
As for people’s New Year wishes, 65% were society-related, the highest since the survey series started at the end of 1992, 12% were world peace-related, while only 9% were related to personal matters, the lowest since the survey series started.