POP releases popularities of CE and Secretaries of Departments along with five core social indicators and Group Gathering Prohibition Index (GGPI) (2021-06-15)

Jun 15, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Detailed Findings

POP releases popularity figures of CE and Secretaries of Departments
along with five core social indicators

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,008 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early June. Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 30.3 marks, with 43% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 53 percentage points. All these figures have not changed much from half a month ago. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 33.2 marks. His net popularity is negative 19 percentage points, registering a significant recovery of 11 percentage points from a month ago. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.4 marks. His net popularity is negative 18 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from a month ago. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 24.2 marks, her net popularity is negative 47 percentage points, also not changed much from a month ago. On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “prosperity”, “stability”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.83, 4.80, 4.77, 4.39 and 3.82 respectively. Compared with a month ago, “prosperity”, “stability” and “rule of law” indicators have rebounded significantly, up by 0.38 to 0.42. The effective response rate of the survey is 55.1%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-2.5 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	7-10/6/2021
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size[1]	:	1,008 (including 507 landline and 501 mobile samples)
Effective response rate	:	55.1%
Sampling error[2]	:	Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-6% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.5 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of CE and Principal Officials

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	22-25/3/21	7-9/4/21	19-22/4/21	3-7/5/21	17-21/5/21	7-10/6/21	Latest change
Sample size	1,010	1,003	1,004	1,013	1,004	1,008	—
Response rate	56.8%	50.1%	54.5%	55.5%	52.5%	55.1%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Rating of CE Carrie Lam	32.8[3]	30.7	32.0	30.4	30.8	30.3+/-2.1	-0.5
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam	19%	20%	18%	17%	18%	16+/-2%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam	68%	67%	68%	71%	68%	70+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	-50%	-47%	-50%	-54%	-50%	-53+/-5%	-4%

[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	2-5/2/21	24/2/21[4]	8-12/3/21	7-9/4/21	3-7/5/21	7-10/6/21	Latest change
Sample size	529-582	859	521-548	556-639	636-700	570-692	—
Response rate	62.9%	61.0%	47.6%	50.1%	55.5%	55.1%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung	31.2	—	32.7	32.6	30.3	33.2+/-2.4	+2.9
Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung	16%	—	19%	22%	17%[5]	20+/-3%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung	47%	—	44%	43%	48%	39+/-4%	-8%[5]
Net approval rate	-31%	—	-25%	-20%	-30%[5]	-19+/-6%	+11%[5]
Rating of FS Paul Chan	35.2	36.2	34.7	35.8	35.1	35.4+/-2.3	+0.3
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan	23%	27%	26%	29%	24%	25+/-3%	+1%
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan	44%	51%[5]	47%	39%[5]	42%	43+/-4%	+1%
Net approval rate	-21%	-24%	-21%	-10%[5]	-18%	-18+/-6%	—
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng	23.8	—	23.9	22.7	25.0	24.2+/-2.5	-0.9
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	11%	—	14%	14%	14%	14+/-3%	—
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	61%	—	56%	61%	57%	61+/-4%	+4%
Net approval rate	-50%	—	-42%	-47%	-44%	-47+/-6%	-3%

[4] The survey was the Budget instant poll and only asked about the rating of FS and vote of confidence in him.

[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 30.3 marks, with 43% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 16%, disapproval rate 70%, giving a net popularity of negative 53 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 33.2 marks. His approval rate is 20%, disapproval rate 39%, giving a net popularity of negative 19 percentage points, registering a significant recovery of 11 percentage points from a month ago. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.4 marks, approval rate 25%, disapproval rate 43%, thus a net popularity of negative 18 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from a month ago. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 24.2 marks, approval rate 14%, disapproval rate 61%, giving a net popularity of negative 47 percentage points, also not changed much from a month ago.

Core Social Indicators

Herewith the latest figures of the five core social indicators:

Date of survey	2-5/2/21	8-12/3/21	7-9/4/21	3-7/5/2021	7-10/6/21	Latest change
Sample size	650-657	534-654	597-605	605-610	602-607	—
Response rate	62.9%	47.6%	50.1%	55.5%	55.1%	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error	—
Degree of prosperity	4.96[6]	4.26[6]	4.73[6]	4.41[6]	4.83+/-0.21	+0.42[6]
Degree of stability	4.99[6]	4.26[6]	4.76[6]	4.42[6]	4.80+/-0.24	+0.39[6]
Degree of freedom	5.02[6]	4.70	4.77	4.56	4.77+/-0.26	+0.20
Compliance with the rule of law	4.50[6]	3.92[6]	4.40[6]	4.01[6]	4.39+/-0.25	+0.38[6]
Degree of democracy	4.27[6]	3.59[6]	3.68	3.56	3.82+/-0.27	+0.26

[6] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “prosperity”, “stability”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.83, 4.80, 4.77, 4.39 and 3.82 respectively. Compared with a month ago, “prosperity”, “stability” and “rule of law” indicators have rebounded significantly, up by 0.38 to 0.42.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 7 May, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 7 to 10 June, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

10/6/21	NPCSC passes “Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law”.
5/6/21	Hong Kong records an untraceable case involving coronavirus variant.
4/6/21	Police locks down Victoria Park to prevent June 4 vigil.
31/5/21	The government plans to restrict unvaccinated persons from entering various premises.
30/5/21	The government and the business sector launch initiatives to encourage vaccination.
29/5/21	Expert says the fourth wave of infections has ended.
28/5/21	10 famous democrats are convicted and jailed for 10.1 assembly.
27/5/21	The Legislative Council passes amendments to Hong Kong’s electoral system.
25/5/21	The government announces it will arrange vaccination for holders of the Exit-entry Permit and refugees.
21/5/21	Some universities and corporations launch initiatives to encourage vaccination.
20/5/21	Hong Kong reports no untraceable local cases for 27 consecutive days.
14/5/21	The government freezes Jimmy Lai’s personal assets under the national security law.
11/5/21	The government purchases the broadcasting rights of the Tokyo Olympics for five television stations.
8/5/21	The Department of Health lays charges against two patients infected with coronavirus variant for withholding information on their whereabouts.
7/5/21	The government announces that vaccinated person can have shorter quarantine period.
4/5/21	Residents of Block R of Allway Gardens are put into quarantine centre for 21 days.
3/5/21	Residents of Beauty Mansion in Tsim Sha Tsui are put into quarantine centre for 21 days.

Data Analysis

Our survey shows that the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 30.3 marks, with 43% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 53 percentage points. All these figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 33.2 marks. His net popularity is negative 19 percentage points, registering a significant recovery of 11 percentage points from a month ago. The support rating of FS Paul Chan is 35.4 marks. His net popularity is negative 18 percentage points. These figures have not changed much from a month ago. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 24.2 marks, her net popularity is negative 47 percentage points, also not changed much from a month ago.

On a scale of 0 to 10, people’s ratings on the five core social indicators ranked from the highest to the lowest are “prosperity”, “stability”, “freedom”, “rule of law” and “democracy”. Their scores are 4.83, 4.80, 4.77, 4.39 and 3.82 respectively. Compared with a month ago, “prosperity”, “stability” and “rule of law” indicators have rebounded significantly, up by 0.38 to 0.42.