POP releases popularities of CE and SAR Government along with Public Sentiment Index (2021-05-25) - HKPORI

May 25, 2021
Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute Press Conference – Press Materials

Press Conference Live

POP releases popularities of CE and SAR Government along with Public Sentiment Index

Special Announcement

The predecessor of Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) was The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP). “POP” in this release can refer to HKPOP or its predecessor HKUPOP.

Abstract

POP successfully interviewed 1,004 Hong Kong residents by a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of May. Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 30.8 marks, with 40% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the net satisfaction stands at negative 46 percentage points and net trust value at negative 22 percentage points. Both figures have not changed much from last month. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, economic and livelihood conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 40, negative 43 and negative 44 percentage points respectively, which remain more or less the same as last month. As for the PSI, the latest figure is 70.4, down by 0.3 point from early May. The effective response rate of the survey is 52.5%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.0 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	17-21/5/2021
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size^[1]	:	1,004 (including 494 landline and 510 mobile samples)
Effective response rate	:	52.5%
Sampling error^[2]	:	Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.0 at 95% conf. level
Weighting method	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2020”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong – Key Statistics (2020 Edition)”.

[1] This figure is the total sample size of the survey. Some questions may only involve a subsample, the size of which can be found in the tables below.

[2] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

Popularity of CE and SAR Government

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	8-12/3/21	22-25/3/21	7-9/4/21	19-22/4/21	3-7/5/21	*17-21/5/21*	*Latest change*
Sample size	1,001	1,010	1,003	1,004	1,013	*1,004*	—
Response rate	47.6%	56.8%	50.1%	54.5%	55.5%	*52.5%*	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	—
Rating of CE Carrie Lam	29.5^[3]	32.8^[3]	30.7	32.0	30.4	*30.8+/-2.0*	*+0.3*
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam	18%^[3]	19%	20%	18%	17%	*18+/-2%*	*+1%*
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam	72%^[3]	68%	67%	68%	71%	*68+/-3%*	*-3%*
Net approval rate	-54%^[3]	-50%	-47%	-50%	-54%	*-50+/-5%*	*+4%*

[3] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	18-22/12/20	18-22/1/21	24-26/2/21	22-25/3/21	19-22/4/21	*17-21/5/21*	*Latest change*
Sample size	558-623	510-600	519	570-630	548-613	*566-646*	—
Response rate	68.7%	67.2%	57.2%	56.8%	54.5%	*52.5%*	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	—
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[4]	17%	16%	23%^[5]	21%	19%	*17+/-3%*	*-2%*
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[4]	60%	61%	56%	62%^[5]	59%	*63+/-4%*	*+3%*
Net satisfaction rate	-43%	-45%	-33%^[5]	-42%	-40%	*-46+/-6%*	*-5%*
Mean value^[4]	2.1	2.1	2.3^[5]	2.2	2.2	*2.1+/-0.1*	*-0.1*
Trust in HKSAR Government^[4]	29%	28%	36%^[5]	32%	32%	*31+/-4%*	—
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[4]	56%^[5]	51%	50%	53%	52%	*54+/-4%*	*+1%*
Net trust	-27%	-23%	-14%	-21%	-20%	*-22+/-7%*	*-2%*
Mean value^[4]	2.4	2.5	2.6	2.5	2.5	*2.5+/-0.1*	—

[4] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[5] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

People’s recent appraisals of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	18-22/12/20	18-22/1/21	24-26/2/21	22-25/3/21	19-22/4/21	*17-21/5/21*	*Latest change*
Sample size	1,014	1,011	1,000	1,010	1,004	*1,004*	—
Response rate	68.7%	67.2%	57.2%	56.8%	54.5%	*52.5%*	—
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	—
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate^[6]	16%	15%	18%	21%	20%	*20+/-3%*	—
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[6]	65%	63%	61%	61%	60%	*61+/-3%*	*+1%*
Net satisfaction rate	-50%	-47%	-42%	-41%	-39%	*-40+/-5%*	*-1%*
Mean value^[6]	2.0	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.2	*2.1+/-0.1*	—
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate^[6]	10%	13%	12%	12%	14%	*17+/-2%*	*+4%^[7]*
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[6]	68%^[7]	67%	68%	66%	63%	*60+/-3%*	*-3%*
Net satisfaction rate	-59%	-54%	-56%	-54%	-49%	*-43+/-5%*	*+6%*
Mean value^[6]	2.0	2.1	2.1	2.1	2.2^[7]	*2.3+/-0.1*	—
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate^[6]	14%	15%	19%^[7]	17%	15%	*18+/-2%*	*+2%*
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[6]	65%	62%	62%	65%	64%	*62+/-3%*	*-2%*
Net satisfaction rate	-51%	-47%	-43%	-48%	-49%	*-44+/-5%*	*+4%*
Mean value^[6]	2.1	2.2	2.2	2.2	2.2	*2.2+/-0.1*	—

[6] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[7] The difference between the figure and the result from the previous survey has gone beyond the sampling error at 95% confidence level, meaning that the change is statistically significant prima facie. However, whether the difference is statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 30.8 marks, with 40% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her approval rate is 18%, disapproval rate 68%, giving a net popularity of negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago.

Regarding the HKSAR Government, the latest satisfaction rate is 17%, whereas 63% feel dissatisfied, thus the net satisfaction stands at negative 46 percentage points. The mean score is 2.1, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 31% of the respondents expressed trust, 54% expressed distrust, thus the net trust value is negative 22 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5, meaning between “quite distrust” and “half-half” in general. All figures have not changed much from last month.

As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, economic and livelihood conditions, the latest satisfaction rates are 20%, 17% and 18% respectively, while the net satisfaction rates are negative 40, negative 43 and negative 44 percentage points respectively. The mean scores are between 2.1 and 2.3, meaning close to “quite dissatisfied” in general. All figures above remain more or less the same as last month.

Public Sentiment Index

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by POP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal.

The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:


Latest figure	Public Sentiment Index (PSI): 70.4 (-0.3)	Government Appraisal (GA): 68.7 (-0.7)	Society Appraisal (SA): 71.1 (+0.2)

Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:

Cut-off date	12/3/21	25/3/21	9/4/21	22/4/21	7/5/21	*21/5/21*	*Latest change*
Public Sentiment Index (PSI)	69.9	69.4	69.0	71.3	70.6	*70.4*	*-0.3*
Government Appraisal (GA)	71.6	70.6	69.8	70.7	69.4	*68.7*	*-0.7*
Rating of CE	29.5	32.8	30.7	32.0	30.4	*30.8*	*+0.3*
Net approval rate of CE	-54%	-50%	-47%	-50%	-54%	*-50%*	*+4%*
Mean value of people’s satisfaction with SARG	2.3^[8]	2.2	2.2^[8]	2.2	2.2^[8]	*2.1*	*-0.1*
Mean value of people’s trust in SARG	2.6^[8]	2.5	2.5^[8]	2.5	2.5^[8]	*2.5*	—
Society Appraisal (SA)	67.2^[8]	67.5	67.5^[8]	70.8	70.8^[8]	*71.1*	*+0.2*
People’s satisfaction with political condition	2.1^[8]	2.1	2.1^[8]	2.2	2.2^[8]	*2.1*	—
Weighting index of political condition	0.32^[8]	0.32^11]	0.32^[8]	0.32^[8]	0.32^[8]	*0.32^[8]***	—
People’s satisfaction with economic condition	2.1^[8]	2.1	2.1^[8]	2.2	2.2^[8]	*2.3*	—
Weighting index of economic condition	0.33^[8]	0.33^11]	0.33^[8]	0.33^[8]	0.33^[8]	*0.33^[8]***	—
People’s satisfaction with livelihood condition	2.2^[8]	2.2	2.2^[8]	2.2	2.2^[8]	*2.2*	—
Weighting index of livelihood condition	0.35^[8]	0.35^11]	0.35^[8]	0.35^[8]	0.35^[8]	*0.35^[8]***	—

[8] POP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.

As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:

Score value	Percentile	Score value	Percentile
140-200	Highest 1%	0-60	Lowest 1%
125	Highest 5%	75	Lowest 5%
120	Highest 10%	80	Lowest 10%
110	Highest 25%	90	Lowest 25%
100 being normal level, meaning half above half below

The latest PSI stands at 70.4, down by 0.3 point from early May. It can be considered as among the worst 2% across the past 20 years or so. Among the two component scores of PSI, the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance decreases by 0.7 point to 68.7, whereas the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment increases by 0.2 point to 71.1. They can be considered as among the worst 2% and 3% across the past 20 years or so respectively.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, POP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would then become “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 19 to 22 April, 2021 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 21 May, 2021. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

20/5/21	Hong Kong reports no untraceable local cases for 27 consecutive days.
19/5/21	The government releases data on adverse events after vaccination.
14/5/21	The government freezes Jimmy Lai’s personal assets under the national security law.
11/5/21	The government purchases the broadcasting rights of the Tokyo Olympics for five television stations.
8/5/21	The Department of Health lays charges against two patients infected with coronavirus variant for withholding information on their whereabouts.
7/5/21	The government announces that vaccinated person can have shorter quarantine period.
4/5/21	Residents of Block R of Allway Gardens are put into quarantine centre for 21 days.
3/5/21	Residents of Beauty Mansion in Tsim Sha Tsui are put into quarantine centre for 21 days.
2/5/21	The government plans to require foreign domestic helpers to be vaccinated to come to Hong Kong or renew contracts.
1/5/21	Virus genome sequencing shows coronavirus variant has spread in the community.
30/4/21	The government imposes mandatory testing for all foreign domestic helpers in Hong Kong.
29/4/21	Hong Kong records the first untraceable case involving coronavirus variant.
27/4/21	The government relaxes some anti-epidemic measures with “vaccine bubble” as the basis.
26/4/21	The governments of Hong Kong and Singapore announce that Air Travel Bubble arrangement will begin on May 26.
23/4/21	Former member of Hong Kong National Front is jailed for 12 years for possessing explosives.

Data Analysis

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam is 30.8 marks, with 40% of respondents giving her 0 mark. Her net popularity stands at negative 50 percentage points. All popularity figures have not changed much from half a month ago. Regarding the HKSAR Government, the net satisfaction stands at negative 46 percentage points and net trust value at negative 22 percentage points. Both figures have not changed much from last month. As for people’s satisfaction with the current political, economic and livelihood conditions, the net satisfaction rates are negative 40, negative 43 and negative 44 percentage points respectively, which remain more or less the same as last month.

As for the PSI, the latest figure is 70.4, down by 0.3 point from early May.